Day At The Track

ID19 by the numbers

06:43 AM 06 Dec 2019 NZDT
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A G's White Socks,Harness racing
Race Images photo

Data analysts have delved into ID19, revealing the likely heroes and heartbreak kids as we near night three of the classic trots series.

Based on calculations, not only are dual heat winners A Gs White Sox (currently 34 points) and Ultimate Sniper (34) assured Inter Dominion pacing final qualification but so are Chase Auckland (28), Cruz Bromac (28) and Mach Shard (24), while Thefixer (21) only needs to start to advance. That's half the pacing field finalised.

The cut-off mark is likely to be highly contingent on whether the bonus points for finishing first, second or third are cannibalised by the series' leaders or claimed by those on the brink or in the lower reaches.

If the series' leaders continue to dominate, 21 points (pacing) and 18 points (trotting) will likely earn qualification, but that could soar to as much as 23 and 19 in the event of a series of upsets.

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Of the remaining pacers, projections have Ashley Locaz, My Kiwi Mate, San Carlo, Bling It On and Classie Brigade advancing along with Triple Eight, who rounds out the final 12. TeamVic's Sicario and Dance Time are projected to be next best on 18 points, just missing qualification and therefore reliant on a scratching for a start. The projections were based on bookies' expectations of horses' performances in tomorrow night's final round of heats.

To amass at least 23 points and be all but assured qualification, the projected qualifiers would need to finish in the following places or higher: Ashley Locaz 6th, My Kiwi Mate 10th, San Carlo 8th, Bling It On 4th, Classie Brigade 7th and Triple Eight 3rd.

In the trotting ranks, where 12 of the 20 entrants will advance to the December 14 Inter Dominion Trotting Championship, analysts predict at least 18 series points will be required to qualify.

Already meeting that mark are Majestic Man (25 points), Paramount King (25), Marcoola (24), Temporale (23), Winterfell (23), Massive Metro (22) and Habibi Inta (18 points).

Going on likely finishing order in tomorrow night's heats, TeamVic's Big Jack Hammer is projected to advance to finals night with Bonnie Highlander, Destiny Jones, Tough Monarch and Valloria.

Monty Python, predicted to run 7th and acquire five points in the final heat, is projected to be unlucky number 13.

To amass at least 19 points and be all but assured qualification, the projected qualifiers would need to finish in the following places or higher: Big Jack Hammer 6th, Bonnie Highlander 7th, Destiny Jones 7th, Tough Monarch 5th and Valloria 5th.

The below table gifts a full run down of what it takes to reach finals qualification in tomorrow's final night of heats.

Pacers

Horse Current total Pts Req (23) Pos. to Qual
Ultimate Sniper 34 -11  
A G's White Socks 34 -11  
Cruz Bromac 28 -5  
Chase Auckland 28 -5  
Mach Shard 24 -1  
Thefixer 21 2 12
My Kiwi Mate 19 4 10
San Carlo 17 6 8
Classie Brigade 16 7 7
Solid Gold 16 7 7
Ashley Locaz 15 8 6
Sicario 15 8 6
Bling It On 13 10 4
Dance Time 13 10 4
On The Cards 13 10 4
Triple Eight 12 11 3
Star Galleria 12 11 3
Our Uncle Sam 9 14 2
Conviction 9 14 2
The Devils Own 9 14 2
Another Masterpiece 8 15 1
Check In 8 15 1
Atomic Red 7 16 1
Colt Thirty One 6 17 1
Henry Hubert 4 19 Out

Trotters

Horse Current total Pts Req (19) Pos. to Qual
Majestic Man 25 -6  
Paramount King 25 -6  
Marcoola 24 -5  
Temporale 23 -4  
Winterfell 23 -4  
Massive Metro 22 -3  
Habibi Inta 18 1 10
Bonnie Highlander 14 5 7
Destiny Jones 14 5 7
Big Jack Hammer 13 6 6
Monty Python 12 7 5
Tough Monarch 12 7 5
Valloria 12 7 5
C K Spur 10 9 3
Sertorius 10 9 3
Pres The Belle 8 11 2
Ronald J 7 12 2
Didjabringthebeers 6 13 1
Kenny's Dream 6 13 1
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