A heart rate monitor has given Kiwi trainer Mark Jones all the confidence he needs to drive Master Lavros like a winner in his comeback race at Addington tonight.
The 2014 NZ Trotter of the Year clashes with the horse who took that title from him in Stent as both resume in a star-studded 2600m standing start tonight.
Both Stent and Master Lavros will, like all elite level horses returning at this stage of the season, be below their best and set to improve with their outing.
Which is why the attitude of their drivers and how they approach the race can be a good pointer for punters and Jones is full of confidence.
“Obviously Stent is a very good horse and he might have more speed than us,” admits Jones.
“But like my horse he is still very much on the way up and the one who gets the better run out of the pair might win. And I think that could be me.”
While Master Lavros has drawn the inside of the 30m mark that could prove advantageous because there are only two horses on the front line and Escapee, the sole 20m starter, is unruly so has to start wide on the track, meaning Master Lavros could have very little traffic in front of him early.
“While being off 30m doesn’t sound great if he begins well we could be up to fourth pretty quickly,” says Jones.
“And if that happens I won’t be scared to do some work with him because he is so tough.
“Even though this is his first run back I think he is ready to do the work and still win.
“He has only had one trial but I have been checking his heart rate after his work at home and it tells me he is pretty fit.
“So I think we can beat Stent."
The one word of warning for punters though is Master Lavros did miss away badly in his only public outing this season, at the Addington trials on September 14, but he should be more settled for that outing.
Stent has usurped Master Lavros as NZ’s premier trotter on last season’s form, culminating in a clean sweep of Victoria’s group ones through last February and March, including his heat and final of the Great Southern Star.
Stent has a comparable standing start and fresh up record to his arch rival so where the pair settle soon after the start could decide the race, even allowing for the class of their rivals.
Trainers Colin and Julie De Filippi have battled a corn problem with Stent early in this preparation but believe they are on top of that now and he has looked forward enough to win at his two recent workouts.
The difference between the pair is that Stent is good enough to sit behind Master Lavros and usually outsprint him, but Master Lavros might have more natural stamina so can take up a better field position.
With so little between them Master Lavros might provide better value as he should be around $3.80 to $4, whereas Stent is always short in early markets and will attract the bulk of the co-mingled money from Australia on the tote, so even if he does win the returns may not be worth the risk.
Former group one star Habibti is the other multiple group one winning trotter in tonight’s race but even after winning at the Ashburton trials on Tuesday co-trainer David Butt is adamant she will need a few raceday starts to beat the big boys.
by Michael Guerin
Harness Racing Australia