Low takeout, huge advantage at Balmoral Park

05:24 AM 18 Dec 2013 NZDT
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Courtesy Of Balmoral Park Raceway
Balmoral Park's handle will get a giant boost this Wednesday, Dec. 18th, because no bettor was able to select all four winners on the Sunday Pick Four or the top five finishers in the Ten cent High Five on Dec. 15th. Both of these Wednesday wagers will now have guaranteed pools. The Wednesday Pick Four pool will be seeded with a one day carryover of $28,237 and Balmoral Park along with the United States Trotting Association will guarantee a Pick Four pool of $75,000.

With the low takeout of 15%, the Balmoral Pick 4 will offer the rarest of gambling opportunities which is to play with a substantial gambling advantage. Simply speaking, the amount paid back to the winners will exceed the amount wagered on the bet if the final pool is less than $216,474. Based on the extraordinary value of the bet, the Balmoral Pick 4 this Wednesday is from a statistical gamblers view one of the must plays of the year. The following example is based on a variety of final pools starting with the guaranteed final pool of $75,000.

Final Pick 4 pool New money Net pool after 15% takeout Players advantage

$ 75,000 46,763 67,985 plus 45.2 %

100,000 71,763 89,235 plus 24.3 %
125,000 96,763 110,485 plus 14.1 %
150,000 l 121,763 131,735 plus 8.1 %
175,000 146,763 152,985 plus 4.2 %

Using the $75,000 guaranteed pool, you would have $67,985 returned to the winners after the fifteen per cent takeout even though they wagered only $46,763. This would create a surplus of $21,222 which would be added to pay off the winners. The $75,000 pool would create a players advantage of over 45%. This statistical anomaly occurs with the combination of low takeout and a substantial amount of "dead" money in the pool.

Therefore we will go with an estimated pool of $125,000 which will still give the players a 14.1 per cent advantage (see above chart). Clearly there is ample reason to believe that players will respond strongly to this wagering opportunity. And that is not all. The Ten cent High Five also has a one day carryover of $13,893. The USTA and Balmoral will offer a $40,000 guaranteed pool on the Wednesday Penta-Fecta which is also the final leg of the Pick Four. The Pick Four is on the Final Four races and starts with race seven at approximately 9:15 central and ends with the High Five finale on race ten at approximately 10:25 central.

Balmoral Park and Maywood Park, with the help of the USTA Strategic Wagering program and Track Master offers free deluxe twelve race program pages for the Pick Four and High Five on every racing night at www.ustrotting.com.

Welcome to the Players Guide...

We will give you an informed look at tonight's racing program in Chicago. We have tailored the Players Guide for several types of betting style. What is your style? For me personally, it means being a contrarian and taking some chances. I will bet against the favorite whenever possible, if I think there is VALUE in another selection. Sometimes I will key a favorite on top of the overvalued horses in exotics. If you are going to show a profit in this game, you must get value when you are investing your money. In the long run, creating this discipline is the difference between winning and losing.
The ratings list our top selections in order of their probability of winning. These ratings give no credence to the odds, although horses with value are included in these selections throughout the evening. It is our opinion of the top contenders, listed in order of their probability of winning. If you are a risk taker or value player, then Michael's Plays should be of considerable interest to you. I will take calculated chances, selecting horses with more wagering value and higher odds. My plays may select fewer winners than my top rated selection, but in the long run, I believe Michael's Plays will give you a higher return on your investment.
In closing, I remind you that there is no prize for selecting the most winners. The name of the game is making money. Our goal is to have a profitable year. For the serious player, we know that is your goal as well.

Wednesday, December 18th Balmoral Park selections

RACE MICHAEL'S TOP RATED HORSE MICHAEL'S PLAY

NO. RATINGS (Conservative Choice) (Speculative Opinion)

1      9-4-7-3 9      YO ZURI                        4 HECTOR B

2      2-8-7-6 2      SUNBONNET SUE     6 BRIGHT VICTORY

3      4-9-7-3 4      JETTING AROUND     3 KAYS LUCKY DAY

4      8-10-6-7 8     IMNOTASONOFABEACH    7 LADY OF TYE WEST

5      7-8-9-6 7       JB OUI OUI                    6 BIG CHOCOLATE

6      1-4-7-5 1       CARNOUSTIE               4 OUR MISS LILY

7       2-9-3-1 2      JUST ONE DANCE       1 WHITNEYREANNA

8       9-3-6-8-7 9    OVERANDOVERVICTORY      3 CAMS SAHBRA

9      10-4-9-1-3 10    SEXY CARD SHARK     1 AUTUMN SEELSTER

10    5-3-6-2-7 5        L A CAMCHARGER      2 EDEN WAY

by Michael Antoniades, Balmoral Park racing analyst

 

 

 

 

 

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