Who will be the unlucky one?
Heading into Monday's Kaikoura Cup there are seemingly 16 realistic chances vying for the 15 starting spots to contest the $750,000 Group I New Zealand Trotting Cup at Addington Raceway on November 10.
That is presuming Christen Me is fit to start – which is no certainty given the recent setback that saw him miss the Ashburton Flying Stakes – and on the assumption there is more chance of Elvis resurfacing at Addington on Cup day than last year's runner up Franco Nelson.
Belkmyster, Te Kawau, Quick As A Trick, Brilliant Strike and Mach's Gladiator currently fill places 16 to 20 in the Cup rankings but taking out the enigma that is Franco Nelson they would move up one spot.
Unless something goes drastically wrong, seemingly the only realistic chances of falling out of the current field are Choise Achiever and No Doctor Needed who are 14th and 15th. Neither are heading to Kaikoura.
Messini is 13th in the rankings but should be in no danger of missing out going on his fresh up Methven Cup win.
Mark Purdon will drive Messini in Kaikoura but top Australian reinsman Chris Alford will be in the sulky for the New Zealand Trotting Cup.
Te Kawau and Brilliant Strike look the most likely to put in a performance at Kaikoura that will jump them into the top 15 but if only Franco Nelson comes out, one of them or No Doctor Needed could miss out.
Te Kawau came south with bold expectations and has failed to deliver but that should change at Kaikoura when he will be 100 per cent for the first time.
A slice of luck may be all Brilliant Strike needs. He raced three wide for most of the 2600m in the Canterbury Classic and spent most of it without cover and was beaten by his draw in an intermediate pace over 1950m a week later.
Belkmyster was first listed at 16 in the rankings on the back of his Group III win in the Rangiora Classic last season but the field was not a strong one.
Outside of his Rangiora win, his other 10 victories have been shared between Forbury Park, Winton, Gore and Invercargill to get him to open class company and he has seemingly gone backwards since running fourth in the Maurice Holmes Vase fresh up.
Raced by the Met Seven Syndicate, Belkmyster getting a start in the Cup would be a massive thrill for all involved but unless the likes of a Christen Me is scratched it is not going to happen.
Lewy Risk's move to skip the Kaikoura Cup should ensure only scratchings from those from above him would get him close to the top 15.
Even a win in the Listed Yearling Sale Series race should not move him up the rankings given he would be beating horses that are not in Cup contention.
Ideal Success is not heading to Kaikoura which means the only way the Arna Donnelly trained runner could make the Cup field is with six runners pulling out before Tuesday week.
Mat Kermeen
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