The New Zealand Cup is approaching fast.
In a little less than a month the biggest race in the country will go to the tapes and be run and won, so, at the moment, who’s the smart money on?
Being a betting man myself I’ve always tried to focus my attention on the horse that’s shown an x-factor performance in the lead up races. When, engaged in a war of attrition over an extreme trip, the horse that would display that undeniable brilliance to master his or her rivals and come out on top.
At the moment, you could argue a case for a number of Cup hopefuls.
Self Assured is the current favourite to take Cup honors, that’s a reasonable and most probably rightful label given his win in the Maurice Holmes Vase. That win did have an x-factor about it, an early gallop followed by a late surge through the middle of it all to claim victory. He’s also shown a turn of foot that few of the open class pacers seem to possess. He’s got tactical speed. Speed full stop. His standing start manners seem to be under control too, at least off the unruly, which, to his fans, will come as welcome relief. All in all he’s done most things needed of a future NZ Cup champion.
The only thing worrying about the Self Assured Cup-winning narrative now is the late race windburn he got given on Sunday at Mount Harding Methven. The horse that gave him that wake up call? A proven Cup contender in Spankem.
Boy he was good Sunday.
Patiently driven by Natalie Rasmussen throughout the 3000m distance the horse attached a pair of wings to its frame 300m out and powered home from well off the speed to capture the grass track feature in emphatic style.
You couldn’t help but be impressed by the effort.
Was it an x-factor performance? It’s hard to tell given the grass track and relative lack of numbers off the back row. It doesn’t really matter. His performance a week before in the Canterbury Classic was very good, his performance at Methven a step up again. A major player yes.
And then you have Copy That. The Northern raider who, while mixing his form, looked like he could beat them all up after showing disdain for his rivals in three consecutive wins throughout late July and August.
His second in the Spring Cup added a slight haze to the Copy That picture when run down by Mach Shard but was then followed by a sound win in the Kerry Hoggard Memorial over a longer distance when off a decent 30m handicap. Can he travel to Addington, to the biggest day in harness racing in this country and teach them how to dance?
As things are he currently sits on the third line of betting. He's being kept very safe in betting markets.
If he doesn’t quite bring the x-factor in the debate than he’s certainly brings the slightly unknown factor. The “just how good is he” factor.
Of course it’s not only a three horse race.
Cruz Bromac is yet to hit full stride in Australian features yet and may not even get here. Barry Purdon seldom goes away from the Cup without reminding everybody of his training ability and will have his charges primed to bring about a sharp shock.
Then there’s Classie Brigade. He may not have the flashy x-factor performance in him buts he’s got the f-off factor by the bucket load. J Dunn will ensure that during cup week. He doesn’t give a toss who you are come Cup Day. He’ll back himself to throw the cat among the pigeons under all circumstances.
We’re a month out. A lot can happen in a month. There will be conversations and storylines at every corner the open class pacers run around. Betting markets will flutuate and change or every snippet of stables news.
It's all building the tension towards what promises to be another great edition of the New Zealand Cup.
Ben McMillan