Day At The Track

New Zealand Trotting Oaks preview

01:04 PM 19 Mar 2015 NZDT
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Arya - Hard to beat in the New Zealand Trotting Oaks
Arya - Hard to beat in the New Zealand Trotting Oaks

As we come up to the big night of harness racing at Addington on Friday we thought we would do an in- depth preview of some of the group races.

First up is the New Zealand Trotting Oaks.

1) Natives Lasting Love -  Starts: 7    Wins: 0    Secs: 0    Thirds: 0    Life: $1,562  -  (1st Emerg)

A seven start maiden who has shown promise at times but has a mountain to climb here if she made it back into the field.

Not for us.

2) Habibti Ivy -  Starts: 5    Wins: 2    Secs: 0    Thirds: 2    Life: $11,495

The full sister to the brilliant Habibti has inherited all the family ability and looms as a major winning chance from the draw.

Showed high gate speed at her last start and was finishing over the top of Monbet and Prince Fearless late which is great form going into this.

Winning chance from the draw and a must have in all combinations.

3) Alvira Hest - Starts: 3    Wins: 1    Secs: 0    Thirds: 0    Life: $4,073 

Outstanding win last week at Addington, coming from last at the 600 metres to loop them wide out and win easily.

Huge step up here and showed no gate speed last week which negates the good draw.

Could sneak into the first four with the right trip.

4) Eilish Aimee - Scratched

5) One Yankee Hall - Starts: 8    Wins: 0    Secs: 2    Thirds: 2    Life: $2,980 

Promising maiden who went off the rails a couple of times recently but seems back on track now.

Well beaten by Alvira Hest last week which doesn't bode well for this assignment.

Not for us.

6) Fiery Mountain Girl - Starts: 5    Wins: 2    Secs: 0    Thirds: 0    Life: $15,143 

Very promising filly who has won a couple of races in good style.

Showed gate speed when winning at Addington prior to Xmas and has come on in leaps and bounds since then.

Can't see her as the winner but a serious trifecta and first four player from the draw

7) Agnes Brown - Starts: 4    Wins: 1    Secs: 1    Thirds: 0    Life: $7,153

Showed a fair bit of promise in her first two starts which were both from a stand which gave her time to balance up.

Two mobiles since have seen her self destruct which is a major handicap in this race.

Even with Dexter on board, we can't have her as a first four player.

8) Arya - Starts: 15    Wins: 10    Secs: 3    Thirds: 1    Life: $157,486 

The half sister to Stent has been a star from day one and has only missed a placing once in 15 starts when she was disqualified from second in the Harness Jewels.

Faultless manners are a big plus and she is race fit after a string of Australian wins recently.

Comes into barrier six and has gate speed so will settle handy to the speed.

The one to beat for us and a must have for all combinations.

9) Zsa Zara - Starts: 7    Wins: 0    Secs: 2    Thirds: 1    Life: $3,598

Nice filly in the making but this looks a bit rich at this stage of her career.

Would need all favours to finish in the first half of the field and from barrier nine that is not going to happen.

Not for us. 

                                                                    SECOND LINE

10) Sunny Ruby - Starts: 17    Wins: 2    Secs: 2    Thirds: 1    Life: $15,448

Smart front running filly who is the fastest filly off the gate in the country but all of that advantage is negated by the draw.

Will be interesting to see how she goes with a sit because there is no doubting the ability.

Still only an outside first four player for us.

11) Wanna Play - Starts: 15    Wins: 2    Secs: 3    Thirds: 4    Life: $58,795 

Very talented filly who doesn't quite have the ringcraft of some here but has as much natural ability as any.

Will really appreciate the mobile and the left hand way of going as she is better the Addington way round.

Throw in the best driver going round at the moment in Natalie Rasmussen and Wanna Play is a serious winning chance and a must have for all combinations. 

12) Yagunnakissmeornot - Starts: 13    Wins: 7    Secs: 2    Thirds: 4    Life: $52,820

Another high class filly who has won seven races and never missed a placing in thirteen starts.

Does tend to run in on the corners left handed but trainer Sean McCaffrey confident it won't be an issue on the roomy Addington track.

Really good coming off a sit recently and can get a big piece of this with a run to suit.

A must have for all combinations.

13) Petite One - Starts: 7    Wins: 3    Secs: 2    Thirds: 0    Life: $28,871 

Has looked very talented in her career to date, pushing Speeding Spur at Auckland and beating Al Bundy as well so no doubting the ability.

Disregard last run as got taken out by breaker with a lap to go and was to far off them afterwards but did make up a lot of ground to run fifth in a field that included Monbet and Prince Fearless.

Definite trifecta and first four player for us.

14) Jen Jaccka - Starts: 3    Wins: 1    Secs: 0    Thirds: 0    Life: $4,238

Promising filly who ran 3:04 for 2400 metres at her second lifetime start so the ability is there.

Big step up here and our concern is the lack of ringcraft against a field of this quality.

Combine that with the draw and we can't find a place for her.

Not for us

15) Gael Ludlow - Starts: 14    Wins: 1    Secs: 1    Thirds: 0    Life: $6,564

Very good from a stand and also has a liking for grass tracks, neither of which she gets here.

This looks out of reach at this stage of her career.

Not for us.

16) Cyclone Jeter - Starts: 6    Wins: 1    Secs: 0    Thirds: 0    Life: $5,904

Has won a race but last couple of starts have been very disappointing.

Throw in the draw and it looks hard to see her being a player here.

Not for us.

SELECTIONS 

Arya who comes in to barrier six looks very hard to beat.

She has an all round game and is race fit for this and will have the All Star finishing touches on her preparation this week.

The main danger for us is Habibti Ivy who showed real gate speed at her last start and then finished the race off strongly against the two of the best colts in the country in Monbet and Prince Fearless.

Blair Orange takes the drive and with the Paul Nairn polish on her she is a big chance of rolling the favourite.

Yagunnakissmeornot is hindered here by the draw and had she drawn better would have been a huge winning chance.

Can still get a big piece of it but will have to do more work than any of the other favoured runners.

The same applies to Wanna Play who has drawn behind Alvira Hest who is not quick off the gate.

Any luck in the running brings her right into calculations. 

For trifectas and first four players add in Fiery Mountain Girl and Petite One

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