Day At The Track

Stats point to a Guaranteed victory

07:20 PM 26 Nov 2014 NZDT
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Guaranteed.jpg
Guaranteed
Photo courtesy HRV

Guaranteed will win harness racing’s premier sprint - SEW-Eurodrive Miracle Mile - at Menangle on Saturday night.

That’s not a personal opinion, or a tip, but rather a guide by statistics and history.

In what is destined to be an exciting edition of the time-honoured feature, Guaranteed ‘ticks all the boxes’ as far as the weight of numbers is concerned.

Since its inception in 1967 when New Zealand mare Robin Dundee achieved the exact goal the event was created for, 47 editions of the Miracle Mile have been run and won.

As a result of the Equine Influenza outbreak, 2007 is the only season Grand Circuit gem has been missing from the calendar.

As for the Miracle Mile’s original ‘goal’, the mission of the new race was to see the magical two-minute barrier broken for the first time under race conditions in Australia.

During the next five decades the Miracle Mile has established itself as the Southern Hemisphere’s ultimate speed test, but how does Guaranteed fit into the equation?

A breakdown of the winners results in a five-year-old from interstate as the ultimate Miracle Mile candidate!

Five-year-olds have been the most successful age group with 18 wins… six-year-olds are next on 10.

The eldest winner is Double Agent, which was a true ‘greybeard’ at 12 in 1984 for Joe Isley.

Visitors out score local competitors almost three-to-one, with only 13 New South Wales-trained horses emerging triumphant.

As the only five-year-old raider in the field, Guaranteed ‘fits the bill’ for Victorian co-trainers Emma Stewart and Clayton Tonkin.

“Let’s just hope the stats are a good indicator,” Stewart said.

To be driven by master reinsman Gavin Lang – Australia’s most successful Group One driver – Guaranteed has drawn barrier seven, which may prove a blessing in disguise according to Stewart.

The son of Artsplace slots into six with the removal of the emergency.

“There is going to be plenty of speed early, so the draw may turn out in our favour,” Stewart said. “From there he will be eased out under his own steam and looking for a good trail.

“He has proven how quickly he can sprint when coming off a fast tempo, so with a bit of luck that’s what he will be able to do.

“This is another step up for him, but he won’t disgrace himself.”

  • PAUL COURTS

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