Day At The Track

The queen of the silver dollar

07:00 AM 21 Sep 2019 NZST
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Natalie Rasmussen

Only those who follow Natalie Rasmussen show a profit at the end of the season!

Everyone who has studied it knows that following one rider/driver all season is a licence to lose money.

Yes, there may be some good days but there will be a lot of bad ones and you have to forget all those to convince yourself this is a betting ploy that works.What is worse,if you claim you are ahead your betting mates know different.

They have done the sums.

The greatest of jockeys will make at the most a 30 per cent winning strike rate in a season. Not many professional drivers get even close to that. That means for 70 times out of a hundred you can only get a place dividend.

Not enough folks. Not nearly enough.

Natalie Rasmussen is different.

Year after year she has returned her followers a profit. That is because a high strike rate and a relatively low number of drives make following her a winning proposition. And note that even she missed paying a dividend in 25 per cent of her drives.

The profit this past season did not equal some former years, chiefly because Natalie’s following increased every year and longer odds winners are getting few and far between. But still her fans are winners.

This past season in NZ Natalie had just 70 drives which makes her a realistic betting proposition since some have close to or more than 1000. That can get expensive. Very expensive.

She paid a dividend in 51 of those drives. Late in the season she reached a return of over $700 based on a $10 each way bet on all her drives and finished close to that at the end -$690 to be exact.

But we are doing this properly and if we key in the 19 losing drives that reduces the profit to $310.

If you can find another horseman driving every month of the season who is close to that, good luck.

This was not actually Nat’s best season. At times since coming to New Zealand she could show double that profit but her army has grown in recent times. Only one winning drive this season (A Bettor Act) topped a $200 return with a $10 each way bet whereas there were likely to be several in earlier seasons.

Natalie has a remarkable strike rate and not just because she gets a nice pick of drives in the leading stable.

Go back 10 years when she drove on a large scale in a Queensland season (over 600 races in at least two seasons) she still managed a win place ratio of close to 50 per cent.

So if you are starting with a clean sheet and out to make a buck this season-stick with Natalie. She’s the Queen of the Silver Dollar!

 

Courtesy of All Stars Stables.

http://www.allstarsracingstables.com/

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