I will provide you with the hidden secrets that are sure to make you a winner.

Okay, there are no hidden secrets. Besides, if there were secrets, and I told, they wouldn't be hidden anymore.

I have two goals with this column:

(1) Provide basic and advanced handicapping ideas which might make you think about how you view races and past performances.

(2) Dole out my opinion on stakes races and other important events, with the hope of giving you a different perspective (there are worse opinions then mine – trust me).

In addition to this bi-weekly column, you will notice another feature emanating from my home computer to your screen.

Horses To Watch at The Meadowlands (which actually made its debut a couple of days ago) will appear on a weekly basis.

The feature will contain horses which had troubled trips, traffic problems, or came off impressive performances.

Please DO NOT run to the windows to play all the horses that I list. Wagering on each horse should be taken on a case by case basis. Is the horse moving up in his next start? Is the competition tougher? Did he draw poorly? Is the price right?

Over the first three months of the 2008 Meadowlands season my personal list has churned out quite a few winners, including a few $60-plus horses. Hopefully they will aid you when you hit the windows, or telephone/internet wagering accounts.

I would like to take a brief moment to mention the grand transformation of Harnesslink.com to its new first rate look. The behind the scenes powers that be have performed a complete overhaul with the hopes of bringing you the best in the world of harness racing. They have a special dedication to this sport.

If you haven’t surfed around the site just yet, be sure to check out all of the new features.

Perhaps now would be a good time to mention something about handicapping.

Since I have already wasted 350-plus words saying hello, let’s go with something light but important for the opener – trends.

In case you have been living in a bubble, trends rule in life.

The quotes 'Good things come in threes' and 'When it rains it pours' are just a bit of proof at how large a role trends play, at least in the minds of the everyday Joe.

Simply put, confidence breeds success.

Whether you are taking your midterms in college or driving a trotter in a $5,000 claimer, it pays to have a positive mindset.

I have seen trainers win 25 percent of their races one year and then begin the next year by going 0 for 60. These trends occur all the time, and yet, sometimes they go unnoticed.

It is a must for any serious handicapper to stay on top of the current trends. A quick search on your home track's website can quickly give you the information you need.

I did a search on The Meadowlands site (www.meadowlandsracetrack.com) for two periods: 1/1/2008 to 2/15/2008 and 2/15/2008 to 3/12/2008.

Some of the results were quite interesting.

The leading trainer during the earlier dates was Nat Varty at 26 percent. In the second period, Varty was only 9th in the standings at 18 percent. Mark Kesmodel went from 4th to 18th, Bruce Saunders from 11 to 17 percent, Kevin McDermott from 25 to 3 percent, and Richard Johnson had 5 wins early on and 0 in the second period.

These statistics tell us is that a lot can change from one month to the next.

If you picked up a Meadowlands program on March 13, you would see Kesmodel with a strong 14 percent win rate and a solid 14 wins. What you wouldn’t see is that he only won 3 races in the last month. Kevin McDermott’s stats looked wonderful at 8 wins and 14 percent, but his trend was 1 for his last 32.

These trainer trends happen at every track.

When Robert Sumner returned to Yonkers a couple of months ago after a brief leave of absence (sounds like a good way to put it), his stable couldn’t buy a win. Since an initial string of only 1 win in about 30 starts, he reeled off 9 wins over his next 50 or so starts.

Drivers go through similar, but not quite as drastic slumps.

Ron Pierce was hitting at a 15 percent clip in 2007, but started the new year off slowly at just 10 percent. The fact that his numbers are down doesn't make him a driver to avoid, but I wouldn’t give his horse the benefit of the doubt, as I would have with him driving on the top of his game.

Let's throw the numbers away. Everybody knows you can make numbers dance to any tune. You don't need statistics to tell the story. Anyone with his finger on the pulse of The Meadowlands knows that drivers George Brennan and Yannick Gingras are having good meets, and that Eric Goodell is making his presence felt with longshots galore.

One of the biggest trends at The Meadowlands this winter has been the track bias.

While the winter months always favor closers, this year has seen closers score at an extremely high rate. What's more, there seems to be a strong wind condition every night, and it keeps changing.

I have noticed that you can’t group entire cards together when calculating variants and biases. Every race requires separate notes and analysis.

On some nights horses which get a slow half are winning and those which go too fast are losing (makes sense). On other nights horses that get a slow half lose anyway.

On some occasions the winning move has been a three-wide brush just before the three quarter pole. On other nights you have to be third- or fourth-over.

Just when it looked like speed was bad, a night like March 14 came along. Six of the 12 winners had the lead at the half mile pole.

It has almost come to the point where you must watch the first few races to get a feel for the track before rushing to the windows to make a play.

So, keep a close eye out for what is going on in the standings and on the track. A little homework can go a long way.

Before I part ways with you, let’s take a quick peek at the Classic Series at Dover this Monday, April 7.

The first leg of the Classic series for older performers of each gait and sex is highlighted by the horse and gelding pace.

A pair of 5-year-olds with superstar ability make their debut: Artistic Fella and Total Truth.

Artistic Fella, who won the Breeders Crown last year, has only one qualifier under his belt. But, reports are that driver Tim Tetrick had him behind the gate at Dover Wednesday morning after the qualifiers ended.

Total Truth enters the race following four morning efforts and seems the most likely to fire at first asking, though trainer George Teague admitted it would take a month for `Truth’ to peak.

Joining the duo are early season sensations Mr Feelgood and Manhardt.

Another first-timer for 2008 making his return to the track is Vivid Photo. The former Hambletonian winner has a series of qualifiers under his belt and doesn’t exactly tackle the toughest field in the Classic trot.

Perhaps the most betable field from a form standpoint is the Classic mares pace. The only problem is Southwind Tempo is a clear standout and probably not worth your wagering dollar.

Rounding out the action is the mares trot. Buck I St Pat will be the clear favorite in the event.

These events are must watch races, if for no other reason then to get a feel for whom to watch for as the stakes season officially gets underway.

Until next time, good luck…we all need it.

If you have any comments or questions, feel free to e-mail me an Imcallin@aol.com.

Derick Giwner

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